Wednesday, November 22, 2017

November 22nd - Research Notes & Trade Blog



Two Pieces Of Investing Wisdom From Peter Lynch To Keep In Mind



This is not a recommendation, or a solicitation to purchase or sell shares of  any security. Be sure to read our complete disclaimer  at www.altitradepartners.com. The opinions expressed herein are those of Altitrade Partners, and its principals, and should not be used as the basis for any decision to buy or sell securities. All investing involves risk. Do not rely solely on the opinions of others in making investment decisions. Please perform your own due diligence and invest responsibly. Altitrade Partners makes this blog available for informational purposes only. You should not follow our trading & investment strategies, as they are subject to change without notice. Altitrade Partners has not received any form of  compensation in connection with the publication of this report.


Saturday, November 11, 2017

November 11th - Research Notes & Trade Blog



How This One Transaction Could Become a Balance Sheet Bonanza For Alliance Bio-energy Plus (ALLM)


A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about our current favorite Micro-cap stock; Alliance Bio-energy Plus (ALLM).




Aside from a number of key advantages which this company  enjoys in the production of bio-fuels, the biggest reason why we have been building a position in the shares of ALLM is that the company could realize a balance sheet bonanza if it is successful in acquiring an abandoned Bio-energy manufacturing plant in Vero Beach, Florida along with approximately 144,000 of prime acreage that lies adjacent to the facility. 



The plant, which was heavily subsidized by U.S. taxpayers, was completed in 2012 at a cost of some $130 million. 

ALLM received approval from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in July of this year to proceed with plans to purchase the facility and the surrounding acreage for $8 million.





On August 16, 2017, ALLM announced that its Alliance Bio-Products subsidiary had entered into a material definitive agreement to acquire the closed ethanol facility in Indian River County, Florida, and had tendered an initial deposit of $250,000 towards the purchase.

In a letter to shareholders, dated September 7, 2017, CEO Daniel deLiege gave an update on the progress being made towards securing financing, along with other details that were involved to successfully consummate the transaction.



The timeline of events that we have seen thus far leads us to believe that the company will soon announce that The Harris Group has completed the inspection process of the former INEOS facilities to the satisfaction of the company and that ALLM has secured the necessary financing to move forward with the anticipated purchase as originally planned.


Such an announcement could give shares of ALLM a much needed boost in price, and set the stage for all of the other pieces of the puzzle to begin to fall into place regarding the commercialization of Alliance's exciting, proprietary and patented CTS technology.

Whether or not the price of ALLM will return to levels seen earlier this year remains to be seen.



That said, we are taking advantage of this lull in time to position ourselves to profit from what we believe could easily be our next "ten-bagger".

This is not a recommendation, or a solicitation to purchase or sell shares of  Alliance Bioenergy Plus Inc. (ALLM). Be sure to read our complete disclaimer  at www.altitradepartners.com. The opinions expressed herein are those of Altitrade Partners, and its principals, and should not be used as the basis for any decision to buy or sell securities. All investing involves risk. Do not rely solely on the opinions of others in making investment decisions. Please perform your own due diligence and invest responsibly. Altitrade Partners makes this blog available for informational purposes only. You should not follow our trading & investment strategies, as they are subject to change without notice. Altitrade Partners has not received any form of  compensation in connection with the publication of this report.

Sunday, November 5, 2017

November 5th - Research Notes & Trade Blog



Celsius Holdings, Inc. Investors Take Note


This is not a recommendation, or a solicitation to purchase or sell shares of Celsius Holdings, Inc. ($CELH).  Be sure to read our complete disclaimer at www.altitradepartners.com. The opinions expressed herein are those of Altitrade Partners, and its principals, and should not be used as the basis for any decision to buy or sell securities. All investing involves risk. Do not rely solely on the opinions of others in making investment decisions. Please perform your own due diligence and invest responsibly. Altitrade Partners makes this blog available for informational purposes only. You should not follow our trading & investment strategies, as they are subject to change without notice.

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

November 1st - Research Notes and Trade Blog



New Age Beverages Corp. (NBEV) Versus Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH). The Perfect Time To Swap One For The Other?

About a week ago, back on October 24th, we made a clear reference to our preference for New Age Beverages Corp. (NBEV) over Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH).


Since then, CELH has fallen approximately 7%, going from $5.32 to close today at $4.95. Earlier in the week shares of CELH traded down to a low of $4.41 on heavier than normal volume.

On the other hand, shares of NBEV have rallied just over 14% to close the day at $2.75 from its price of $2.41 on October 24, 2017. 

Today saw a high of $2.85 on volume of over 1,035,677 million shares; more than 3X the average daily volume during the past 90 days of just 295,918 shares.


While there has been a big seller in shares recently, the short interest has remained high, and much of the spike-like moves throughout the day looked to be short covering in the stock.

We think that shares of NBEV remain attractive based on recent news along with a more reasonable valuation metric than CELH, and believe than given the current strong momentum shares can trend much higher in the next few weeks.

If the big seller has, in fact, moved on there won't be much supply to stand in the way of the shares getting above $3.


This is not a recommendation, or a solicitation to purchase or sell shares of New Age Beverages Corp. (NBEV) or Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH).. Be sure to read our complete disclaimer  at www.altitradepartners.com. The opinions expressed herein are those of Altitrade Partners, and its principals, and should not be used as the basis for any decision to buy or sell securities. All investing involves risk. Do not rely solely on the opinions of others in making investment decisions. Please perform your own due diligence and invest responsibly. Altitrade Partners makes this blog available for informational purposes only. You should not follow our trading & investment strategies, as they are subject to change without notice. Altitrade Partners has not received any form of  compensation in connection with the publication of this report.



Tuesday, October 31, 2017

October 31st - Research Notes & Trade Blog



Glucose Health, Inc. (GLUC) Announces That Their Inventory on Amazon Sold Out In The First Ten Days



It used to be that if a CPG company signed a distribution contract with one of the big-box retailers, it was considered encouraging news.

The problem for investors was that you could never track the sales and resulting inventory levels, since that information remained private, and was usually not made public until the company released quarterly financial results.

Enter Amazon. 



Not only has Amazon become the world's most dominant retailer, but with their website and customer feedback portal, an investor can get a good idea of just how well a new product is selling and being received by consumers.

We've often use Amazon to gauge just how well a product is turning, what consumers think about it, and how that my impact quarterly revenues for a publicly-traded company.

Amazon's Five-Star Customer reviews are an important part of how we measure acceptance of a new product.


It appears that we won't have to glean sales data for ourselves from the Amazon website, as today GLUC announced  that they had completely sold out of inventory levels on Amazon after only the first 10 days of a recent launch on Amazon's website

With Glucose Health's diabetic-friendly iced teas, it will take awhile to see feedback show up, as consumers try the products for the first time, but it will help us to assess the merits of the products moving forward.




In the meantime, today's news is encouraging for Glucose Health, Inc. investors as it could be a prelude of more good things to come.

This is not a recommendation, or a solicitation to purchase or sell shares of Glucose Health, Inc. (GLUC). Be sure to read our complete disclaimer  at www.altitradepartners.com. The opinions expressed herein are those of Altitrade Partners, and its principals, and should not be used as the basis for any decision to buy or sell securities. All investing involves risk. Do not rely solely on the opinions of others in making investment decisions. Please perform your own due diligence and invest responsibly. Altitrade Partners makes this blog available for informational purposes only. You should not follow our trading & investment strategies, as they are subject to change without notice. Altitrade Partners has not received any form of  compensation in connection with the publication of this report.

Monday, October 30, 2017

October 30th - Research Notes & Trade Blog


Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) Breaks Through The Lows Of Last Week




Last Wednesday we pointed out that Celsius Holdings, Inc. had broken through its 50-day moving average triggering a very negative technical signal on the CELH chart.

The stock, however, managed to muster up enough buying support to close the week at $5.15 up from the low of $4.80 achieved during Wednesday's trading session.

We attributed the selling to disappointment on the part of some investors who perhaps felt that Q3 results might not meet some of the lofty expectations out there among CELH followers.

Part of those optimistic expectations have been built on the expansion into the Asian markets; specifically in China.

This morning CELH put out a press release that may have reinforced some of those diminished expectations in the marketplace among investors who are looking for a big jump in revenues over the second quarter to coincide with the company's recent expansion into Asia. 

While the good news was that distribution had begun in China with Qifeng Foods, the fact that very little, if any, of the China launch will show up in the third quarter numbers may have dampened the expectations for a large revenue increase in Q3.

As was stated in this morning's press release: 

"The initial distribution began in September and will cover select channels across three Tier-1 cities including: BeijingGuangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as over 30 other cities across 14 provinces. The initial launch of the locally-produced CELSIUS® drink flavors include Sparkling Cola and Raspberry Acai Green Tea. Widespread product distribution is scheduled for the summer of 2018 through Qifeng Food's network of more than 500 distributors."

It seems, that perhaps, some CELH investors were not especially pleased with having to wait until the summer of 2018 to see distribution broaden out among Qifeng's 500 local distributors.



Today the stock traded as low as $4.41 a share on another session of higher-than-normal volume.

As we said in our blog post from last week, we believe that CELH has begun a new leg down and that additional selling pressure may surface if the company experiences a quarter with lighter-than-expected revenue growth.

How far down is anybody's guess, but to take a lesson from another small beverage company with a similar business profile, investors are learning that Micro-cap beverage stocks can fall much further and faster at times than one would expect, especially when they are pushing the limits of reasonable valuation. 


This is not a recommendation, or a solicitation to purchase or sell shares of Celsius Holdings, Inc. ($CELH).  Be sure to read our complete disclaimer at www.altitradepartners.com. The opinions expressed herein are those of Altitrade Partners, and its principals, and should not be used as the basis for any decision to buy or sell securities. All investing involves risk. Do not rely solely on the opinions of others in making investment decisions. Please perform your own due diligence and invest responsibly. Altitrade Partners makes this blog available for informational purposes only. You should not follow our trading & investment strategies, as they are subject to change without notice.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

October 25th - Research Notes & Trade Blog


Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) Breaks A Key Technical Level. Shares Skid Lower. Why The Sudden Drop?

Shares of Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) were greeted today with a spate of sudden hits to the bid around 2:00 PM EDT and saw continued selling into the close of the session.

An ominous technical sign also appeared with today's selling, which occurred on an increase in normal daily volume, as the shares decisively broke through the 50-day moving average at $5.44.


If it were not for the last minute "tape painting" by someone trying to save the stock from ending at the lows, it would have been even uglier.

It is interesting to note that the 100 share trade that pushed CELH back over $5.00 occurred 1 second later according to the time and sales data on the NASDAQ website.






The question investors now have to ask is --- was today just random selling, or could the selling be attributed to the upcoming third quarter financial results which are due out within the next few weeks.

We tend to be in the second camp. 

While we do believe that CELH will show decent results for Q3, we do not expect them to beat the stellar revenue numbers posted in Q2, nor do we expect another quarter of profitability.

We say that for a couple of reasons. 

First, after revenues stagnated for almost a year prior to Q2 of 2017, we believe that a portion of the $10.2 million in the second quarter were orders that got pushed into Q2 due to anomalies in customer ordering patterns from the prior quarter.


How much? Perhaps as much as $1.5 - $2.0 million would be our guess. Backing that revenue out of Q2, would have produced a number of between $7.5 - $8.2 million. We were expecting revenues of between $7.3 and $7.6 million for the second quarter of 2017; a more normalized pattern of revenue increase based on historical results.

The second concern that we have about upcoming Q3 results revolves around expenses. There is no doubt that there will be a substantial number of expenses associated with the launch of Celsius in Asia. 

We didn't see much in the way of these expenses in Q2, so we would anticipate that they will show up in the third quarter.  

Again, our expectation was for a large net loss in Q2 due to the cost of expansion into Asia which normally would include such things as legal fees, product design and development, promotional activities, marketing displays and other point-of-sale collateral, advertising costs, development costs including flavor profile development, conducting focus groups, packaging graphics & design, manufacturing costs including the cost of raw materials, co-packer fees, shipping and transport costs, and various assorted government fees, taxes and tariffs.

We expect that these combined costs could be substantial  and that they should be reflected in the third quarter results. 

Investors who are expecting a substantial revenue increase in Q3 over Q2 may wind up disappointed, and we believe that more than a few are sharpening their pencils and trying to figure out what a "fair value" might be for CELH.

We have made it quite clear that we believe the shares of Celsius Holdings, Inc. are extremely overvalued based on traditional valuation metrics. 

Other investors seem to agree with the over-valuation story including Capital Cube and CFRA to name just a few. 


There has also been an overall trend of increased short interest in the shares of CELH as the price moved higher and higher over the past three months.



Whatever the fundamentals, there can be no argument that the technical picture has deteriorated with today's share price activity. 

Could shares of CELH be starting a new downtrend? 

We think so. 

How much lower the price goes will depend on the third quarter financial results. 

Today, we think that someone was betting that those numbers may not meet investor's expectations. 

This is not a recommendation, or a solicitation to purchase or sell shares of Celsius Holdings, Inc. ($CELH).  Be sure to read our complete disclaimer at www.altitradepartners.com. The opinions expressed herein are those of Altitrade Partners, and its principals, and should not be used as the basis for any decision to buy or sell securities. All investing involves risk. Do not rely solely on the opinions of others in making investment decisions. Please perform your own due diligence and invest responsibly. Altitrade Partners makes this blog available for informational purposes only. You should not follow our trading & investment strategies, as they are subject to change without notice.